CP7. Scholarly Articleshttp://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/12024-03-28T22:31:23Z2024-03-28T22:31:23ZThe price and income elasticities of natural gas demand in Azerbaijan: Is there room to export more?Gurbanov, SarvarMikayilov, Jeyhun I.Maharramli, Shahinhttp://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/6222023-08-04T13:31:34ZThe price and income elasticities of natural gas demand in Azerbaijan: Is there room to export more?
Gurbanov, Sarvar; Mikayilov, Jeyhun I.; Maharramli, Shahin
Natural gas is frequently introduced as a “transitional fuel”. Because burning natural gas
emits less carbon dioxide emissions than burning either oil or coal. Additionally, the inter mittent nature of low-carbon electricity generation creates imperative for using natural gas
for power generation. The role of natural gas is currently under scrutiny as climate change
transforms into a climate crisis. Meanwhile, share of natural gas in the primary energy
consumption of Azerbaijan is 69%, while 94% of the country’s electricity is currently being
generated in natural gas-fired power plants. In this manner, this paper estimates income and
price elasticities of natural gas demand for the Azerbaijan case. In this study, various sets of
estimation techniques are utilized. By modeling natural gas demand with different estimation
methods, including Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Structural Time Series Modeling,
Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares Method, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, Canonical
Cointegrating Regression, and General to Specific under Autometrics multi-path search
machine learning algorithm, we try to find if there is room for the country to export more. All
these utilized estimation methods confirmed the long-run income elasticity to be around 0.8,
while the long-run price elasticity is around −0.1. Both estimations provide insights in terms
of energy security and electricity security for policymakers during the implementation pro cess of climate, energy, and environmental policy. Findings of this study classify natural as a
necessity and normal good for the Azerbaijan case. The main policy implication of this study
is that policymakers must enable and facilitate the availability of close renewable substitutes
for residential and commercial customers. Estimated elasticities suggest that with rising
national income, demand for natural gas will keep increasing, and efficient consumption will
not be attainable with increasing prices. In the pursuit of export potential, findings suggest
that it is more relevant to free up natural gas allocated from power generation by substituting
it with renewable energy sources.
Forecasting 2030 CO2 reduction targets for Russia as a major emitter using different estimation scenariosGurbanov, SarvarMikayilov, Jeyhun I.Mukhtarov, ShahriyarYagubov, Sakithttp://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/5032023-01-14T14:40:25ZForecasting 2030 CO2 reduction targets for Russia as a major emitter using different estimation scenarios
Gurbanov, Sarvar; Mikayilov, Jeyhun I.; Mukhtarov, Shahriyar; Yagubov, Sakit
This study firstly analyzes the impact of energy intensities and
income on CO2 emissions in Russia, applying different estimation
methods to the data period from 1990 to 2020. In addition, the
study forecasts CO2 emissions considering 2030 targets under different assumptions and assesses the achievability of the set target.
The estimation results concluded that the GDP and fossil fuel
intensities of GDP have a statistically positive impact on CO2 emissions. Also, we found that the forecasted value for 2030, for the
business-as-usual case, is 1750 MtCO2, with 95% confidence interval values of 1703 MtCO2 and 1796 MtCO2. This result shows that
Russia needs to undergo substantial policy interventions to achieve
its targets to reduce CO2 emissions. As the fifth biggest emitter,
Russia missing its emissions targets will have undesirable implications for the rest of the world. Based on the projection results, the
paper discusses some potential policy interventions.
Remittances, Poverty Reduction and Inclusive Growth in the Resource-Poor Former Soviet Union CountriesGurbanov, SarvarMammadrzayev, VusalIsgandar, Hasanhttp://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/4742022-12-14T15:10:55ZRemittances, Poverty Reduction and Inclusive Growth in the Resource-Poor Former Soviet Union Countries
Gurbanov, Sarvar; Mammadrzayev, Vusal; Isgandar, Hasan
This study researches the impact of international remittances on poverty
reduction in six former Soviet Union countries. The countries where personal inter national remittances are equal to more than 5% of GDP and rents from natural
resources are below 10% of GDP are selected as the units of measurement. This
study uses a fixed effect model with robust standard errors to reveal any types of
causality. According to the regression results, a 10% increase in remittance inflow
reduces headcount ratio, poverty gap, and poverty severity at $1.90 per day poverty
line by 4.8, 5.9 and 6.4%, respectively. In addition, the same level of increase in
remittances reduces poverty headcount ratio by 3.3% and poverty gap by 3.7% at
the poverty line of $3.20 per day. Additionally, pooled OLS regression results reveal
that remittance inflow has a negative impact on poverty level in the above-mentioned
six resource-poor countries.
Analytical Assessment of Green Digital Finance Progress in the Republic of GeorgiaGurbanov, SarvarSuleymanli, Farahimhttp://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/4722023-01-14T14:42:30ZAnalytical Assessment of Green Digital Finance Progress in the Republic of Georgia
Gurbanov, Sarvar; Suleymanli, Farahim
Estimations show that approximately US $23 billion is required for
Georgia to meet its climate and environmental targets up to 2030. As the current
Nationally Determined Contribution reveals, considering 1990 as a base year, the
Republic of Georgia plans a 35% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
If the country has financial and technical support, commitment to limit emissions
may rise as high as 50–57%. As part of the Paris Climate accord, developed nations
pledged to channel US $100 billion toward low-income countries between 2020
and 2025. Recent estimates by the OECD show that developed nations will be able
to reach their US $100 billion pledge only in 2023. Considering this lag for many
developing countries, including Georgia, mobilizing private finance via green digital
finance will be vital. The policymakers of the Republic of Georgia are very ambitious about adopting green digital finance solutions. This initiative has potential to
fill the gap in public funding sources. Hence, this study analyzes the potential for
private sector financing through the digitization of green finance. The current study
illustrates the extent to which green finance and its digitization level are available in
the Republic of Georgia. The major policy implication is that the country faces unintended consequences even though there is a robust regulatory attempt to mobilize
private financial sources. This case study is relevant for many developing countries
for drawing lessons on better policymaking.
Stability and incentives for college admissions with budget constraintsAbizada, Azarhttp://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/3832022-05-12T11:39:45ZStability and incentives for college admissions with budget constraints
Abizada, Azar
We study two-sided matching where one side (colleges) can make monetary transfers (offer stipends) to the other (students). Colleges have fixed budgets and strict
preferences over sets of students. One different feature of our model is that colleges value money only to the extent that it allows them to enroll better or additional students. A student can attend at most one college and receive a stipend
from it. Each student has preferences over college–stipend bundles.
Conditions that are essential for most of the results in the literature fail in the
presence of budget constraints. We define pairwise stability and show that a pairwise stable allocation always exists. We construct an algorithm that always selects
a pairwise stable allocation. The rule defined through this algorithm is incentive compatible for students: no student should benefit from misrepresenting his
preferences. Finally, we show that no incentive compatible rule selects a Pareto undominated pairwise stable allocation
Speech recognition in flight simulatorRustamov, S.Gasimov, E.Hasanov, R.Jahangirli, S.Mustafayev, E.Usikov, D.http://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/3822022-05-12T11:31:53ZSpeech recognition in flight simulator
Rustamov, S.; Gasimov, E.; Hasanov, R.; Jahangirli, S.; Mustafayev, E.; Usikov, D.
The article is devoted to the investigation of speech recognition in Flight Simulator
cockpit. We have done research and developed software for speech recognition in Flight
Simulator with limited vocabulary in C# from scratch. The speech recognition system works in
real time and offline mode in Windows platform. We used Mel Frequency Cepstral
Coefficients and Linear Predictive Coefficients feature extraction algorithms and trained the
system by multilayer artificial neural networks. The User Interface of platform is highly
functional and allows users to update system parameters through the interface. Our Speech
Recognition system results are compared to the results of Microsoft Speech SDK and received
satisfactory achievement.
A Hybrid System for Subjectivity AnalysisRustamov, Samirhttp://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/3812022-05-12T11:21:39ZA Hybrid System for Subjectivity Analysis
Rustamov, Samir
Identification of subjective data from web documents having
opinions within are gaining incrementing interest. Opinions
are often views formed by individuals about their sentiments,
appraisals, or feelings, etc., not necessarily based on fact or
knowledge. Identification of subjectivity attempts to recognize if this written piece of work conveys opinions (personal)
or a body of objective facts. This analysis has been utilized
in many natural language and text mining solutions. With
the aim of generating more instructive data, subjectivity
detection has been employed as a primary sifting stage in a
lot of natural language processing assignments.
Trough our experimentation we are aiming to work out
techniques in order to establish classifiers able to identify
subjective expressions from objective ones. By means of
language independent feature weighting, in the experiment
the sentence-level subjectivity classification is attained. A
subjectivity database from the opinions about films of “Rotten
Tomatoes” was deployed as an experiment.
In the paper, we suggested different structures of hybrid
systems based on various supervised machine learning
algorithms such as Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and Fuzzy
Control System (FCS) which achieved sufficient results.
These machine learning methods have been employed for
subjectivity analysis individually and our aim is to
improve performance of classification by using hybrid systems, which is successfully applied by us in sentiment analysis
and natural language call routing problem. Our feature
extraction algorithm computes a feature vector using the
statistical textual terms frequencies in the corpus not having
the use of any lexical knowledge except tokenization. Taking
into consideration this fact, the above-mentioned methods
may be employed in other languages as these methods do
not utilize the lexical, grammatical, and syntactical analysis
within the classification process.
Role of Natural Gas Consumption in the Reduction of CO2 Emissions: Case of AzerbaijanGurbanov, Sarvarhttp://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/3802022-05-12T11:12:17ZRole of Natural Gas Consumption in the Reduction of CO2 Emissions: Case of Azerbaijan
Gurbanov, Sarvar
Azerbaijan signed the Paris Agreement in 2016 and committed to cut greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions by 35% in 2030. Meanwhile, natural gas has been vital component in the total energy
mix of Azerbaijan economy and accounted for almost 65% of the total energy consumption. In the
overall electricity mix, natural gas-fired power plants generate 93% of the country’s electricity. Since
global energy consumption is responsible for 73% of human-caused greenhouse-gas emissions, and
CO2 makes up more than 74% of the total, this study investigates possible mitigation effects of the
natural gas consumption on CO2 emissions for Azerbaijan. Author employed several cointegration
methodologies, namely Bound testing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, Fully
Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Structural
Time Series model (STSM). Author of this paper found that when the share of natural gas increases 1
percent in the total energy mix, CO2 emission per capita decreases approximately 0.14 percent as a
result of the ARDL, FMOLS, and DOLS models. All three models provide cointegration between the
share of natural gas in the total energy mix and reduction in CO2 emissions.
Risk Reporting Practices of Listed Companies: Cross-Country Empirical Evidence from the Auto IndustryVychytilova, JanaNadirov, OrkhanPavelkova, DrahomiraMikeѕka, Martinhttp://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/3792022-05-12T11:05:48ZRisk Reporting Practices of Listed Companies: Cross-Country Empirical Evidence from the Auto Industry
Vychytilova, Jana; Nadirov, Orkhan; Pavelkova, Drahomira; Mikeѕka, Martin
Prior literature has shown that corporate transparency is linked to a firm’s competitiveness. The
frequently noted vagueness and inadequacy of reported risk disclosures have been accompanied
by calls for industry-specific studies. This paper aims to examine the disclosure informativeness of leading multinational automobile firms worldwide regarding firm-specific risks, namely
company risk and company size. Applying a content analysis to examine the prevalent disclosure
context in the automotive industry, we analyze and classify the annually reported risk statements
of 34 multinationals quoted within the NASDAQ OMX Global Automobile Index. These corporations are headquartered in 10 countries, located in the U.S. as well as in the E.U. and in Asia.
Based on an employed Wilcoxon signed rank test, our results show that automobile multinationals favor revealing fewer (more) forward-looking and bad-news risk disclosures as compared to
past-looking and good-news risk statements. Our findings further indicate that bigger and riskier
automobile multinationals do not reveal larger amounts of risk information. This finding is inconsistent with disclosure theory and provides insight into less complex risk reporting practices
that affect investor perceptions of risk by omitting risk information. This paper also provides
new empirical evidence regarding the association between company risk and corporate risk disclosing practices in the auto industry; our data show that company size did not play a significant
role. With our concentration on explaining current risk reporting practices in the automotive
sector, these results are robust with respect to firm-specific risk variables, thus the findings may
prove usable for policy frameworks.
Life Satisfaction and Tax Morale in Azerbaijan: Mediating Role of Institutional Trust and Financial SatisfactionNadirov, OrkhanAliyev, KhataiDehning, BruceSharifzada, IlahaAliyeva, Rafigahttp://dspace.ada.edu.az:80/xmlui/handle/20.500.12181/3782022-05-12T10:34:25ZLife Satisfaction and Tax Morale in Azerbaijan: Mediating Role of Institutional Trust and Financial Satisfaction
Nadirov, Orkhan; Aliyev, Khatai; Dehning, Bruce; Sharifzada, Ilaha; Aliyeva, Rafiga
This paper examines the relationship between life satisfaction (measured as the self-reported satisfaction of each individual with their past life and goal achievements) and tax morale
(measured as the likelihood of an individual’s intrinsic motivation to pay taxes). Using a large-scale
survey data-set from Azerbaijan, it is documented that life satisfaction is positively associated with
tax morale. Life satisfaction plays a significant role in increasing tax compliance practices. It is also
important to note that there is a positive mediating effect of life satisfaction on tax morale through
financial satisfaction and institutional trust. In line with our hypotheses, the results of a series of
analyses remain robust to different models. These results imply that a higher level of life satisfaction
may increase the proportion of individuals who report the highest tax morale in Azerbaijan. Our
findings have policy implications for Azerbaijan and other governments aiming to alleviate high
levels of tax evasion.